The Guardian
David Cameron hosts business forum in Salford as battle over economy hots up
Builders tempt homebuyers with 'no bills' offer
Homebuyers are being offered 18 months of free gas, electricity and water bills in what is likely to be the first of many bribes offered by desperate housebuilders this year.
Barratt Homes and its subsidiary David Wilson are offering to supply homebuyers with gas, electricity and water free of charge, and pay their council tax bills, until the summer of 2010 on developments in Lincolnshire and Derbyshire.
The average household's annual gas and electricity bill is £1,293, according to uSwitch.com, though good insulation in a new-build property means this is usually lower for those households. The average annual water bill is £330.
"Paying utility bills is one of the biggest variables in most household's disposable income," said James Poynor, sales director at Barratt North Midlands. "When gas and electricity prices are as high as they are now everyone feels the strain."
Meanwhile, Notting Hill London, the private housing division of the Notting Hill Housing Group, is offering to kit new flats out with a bed, sofa, wardrobe, table and chairs and other essential furniture on some apartments in one of its gated residential developments in north London.
The bribes are not the first that desperate developers have offered in a bid to attract buyers - in September Barratt's rival Persimmon made a similar offer to pay buyers' household bills and in the summer a consortium of housebuilders in Devon were offering to throw in a free car with every flat bought.
Last November, upmarket property developer Fivewalk Homes offered an Aston Martin to anyone buying one of its £1.25m properties. To date, no one has taken it up on the deal. "The offer is still open and we are prepared to offer the equivalent cash amount off the property if preferred," said a spokeswoman for the company.
Such offers were made in a year when house prices tumbled by an average 16%, according to the Nationwide, and with commentators expecting further price falls this year housebuilders are expected to come up with ever more inventive deals.
"Clearly it is a very challenging time for housebuilders and they are trying to maintain or increase their market share from the market that is still there," said Steve Turner of the Home Builders Federation.
According to senior government housing officials, the number of new homes built in Britain this year will fall below 80,000. If this dire prediction is borne out, 2009 will be one of the worst years for the housebuilding industry for a century, and will exacerbate Britain's housing crisis.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsBuilders tempt homebuyers with 'no bills' offer
Homebuyers are being offered 18 months of free gas, electricity and water bills in what is likely to be the first of many bribes offered by desperate housebuilders this year.
Barratt Homes and its subsidiary David Wilson are offering to supply homebuyers with gas, electricity and water free of charge, and pay their council tax bills, until the summer of 2010 on developments in Lincolnshire and Derbyshire.
The average household's annual gas and electricity bill is £1,293, according to uSwitch.com, though good insulation in a new-build property means this is usually lower for those households. The average annual water bill is £330.
"Paying utility bills is one of the biggest variables in most household's disposable income," said James Poynor, sales director at Barratt North Midlands. "When gas and electricity prices are as high as they are now everyone feels the strain."
Meanwhile, Notting Hill London, the private housing division of the Notting Hill Housing Group, is offering to kit new flats out with a bed, sofa, wardrobe, table and chairs and other essential furniture on some apartments in one of its gated residential developments in north London.
The bribes are not the first that desperate developers have offered in a bid to attract buyers - in September Barratt's rival Persimmon made a similar offer to pay buyers' household bills and in the summer a consortium of housebuilders in Devon were offering to throw in a free car with every flat bought.
Last November, upmarket property developer Fivewalk Homes offered an Aston Martin to anyone buying one of its £1.25m properties. To date, no one has taken it up on the deal. "The offer is still open and we are prepared to offer the equivalent cash amount off the property if preferred," said a spokeswoman for the company.
Such offers were made in a year when house prices tumbled by an average 16%, according to the Nationwide, and with commentators expecting further price falls this year housebuilders are expected to come up with ever more inventive deals.
"Clearly it is a very challenging time for housebuilders and they are trying to maintain or increase their market share from the market that is still there," said Steve Turner of the Home Builders Federation.
According to senior government housing officials, the number of new homes built in Britain this year will fall below 80,000. If this dire prediction is borne out, 2009 will be one of the worst years for the housebuilding industry for a century, and will exacerbate Britain's housing crisis.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsPolice launch online neighbourhood crime maps
Crime maps detailing the number of offences committed in every neighbourhood have been published online by all 43 police forces in England and Wales, the Home Office said today.The colour-coded maps show the levels of burglary, car crime, robbery and other offences, and include charts showing whether crime is rising or falling.
The project is part of government attempts to empower residents and give local communities more influence over police priorities, the Home Office said.
In West Yorkshire, the categories of crime included on the maps include anti-social behaviour. In some areas, such as London, the maps allow the public to report non-urgent crimes. The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, launched the crime map for the capital last September.
The release of the maps follows the publication of a Cabinet Office report that suggested people felt "cut off" from the justice system. The government adviser Louise Casey argued that the maps would help make crime-fighting more visible.
British police forces have in recent years increasingly used crime mapping and statistics to help make decisions about resource allocation.Some senior police officers have expressed concerns that making crime maps public could give criminals useful intelligence.
The police minister, Vernon Coker, said today: "Every single police force in England and Wales now has crime mapping. This gives comprehensive knowledge about crime patterns and hotspots to communities.
"By empowering people with this information they are able to engage more with their neighbourhood policing teams. I am sure this will lead to an even more responsive and effective police, thoroughly in tune with people's needs. As a result, crime mapping can help ensure people's voices are heard when police set crime-fighting priorities."
The announcement marks the fulfilment of a pledge made by the home secretary, Jacqui Smith, last summer. At the time, Smith said the maps would increase public confidence and make the streets safer.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsAriane Sherine: We did it! The atheist bus campaign is bigger and better then ever
Today, thanks to many Cif readers, the overall total raised for the Atheist Bus Campaign stands at a truly overwhelming £135,000, breaking our original target of £5,500 by over 2400%. Given this unexpected amount, I'm very excited to tell you that 800 buses – instead of the 30 we were initially aiming for – are now rolling out across the UK with the slogan, "There's probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy your life", in locations all over England, Scotland and Wales, including Manchester, Edinburgh, Glasgow, York, Cardiff, Devon, Leeds, Bristol and Aberdeen.
From today's launch, two hundred of the buses will run in London, because the campaign was originally started as a positive counter-response to the Jesus Said ads running on London buses in June 2008. These ads displayed the URL of a website which stated that non-Christians "will be condemned to everlasting separation from God and then you spend all eternity in torment in hell … Jesus spoke about this as a lake of fire prepared for the devil". Our rational slogan will hopefully reassure anyone who has been scared by this kind of evangelism.
In addition, we're running adverts on two further types of media. In my last Cif blog on the campaign, I asked Cif readers for ideas on alternative ways to spend the funds, and also for thoughts on different slogans. Commenters WoollyMindedLiberal, PaoloV and Catch22 suggested that we use quotes from famous freethinkers, and we've done just that: from Monday January 12, 1,000 tube cards will run on London Underground featuring atheist quotations from Douglas Adams, Albert Einstein, Emily Dickinson and Katharine Hepburn (see above), alongside the original campaign slogan.
An animated version of the slogan will also appear on two large LCD screens on Oxford Street (opposite Bond Street tube station), so that you can see the advert live without having to wait for an atheist bus. And, to thank all donors and show the strength of atheism in the UK, every ABC advertisement will contain the line "This advert was funded by public donations".
Amazingly, the campaign has now gone international. Spain's Union of Atheists and Freethinkers are launching buses across Barcelona today with a translation of our slogan, Italy's Union of Atheist, Agnostics and Rationalists are also planning to roll out atheist buses, while the American Humanist Association have been inspired to launch a campaign, and buses carrying their slogan "Why believe in a God? Just be good for goodness' sake" have now been running for over a month in Washington DC. Sadly, not every country has been so open to the idea: the Atheist Foundation of Australia tried to place the slogan "Atheism – celebrate reason" on buses, but were rejected by Australia's biggest outdoor advertising company.
The campaign's success is thanks to Cif and Cif readers. If Matt Seaton hadn't allowed me to run with the idea here, and so many of you hadn't been so enthusiastic about it and donated generously to it, it would never have happened. There may be further campaign developments, and the campaign website and Facebook group will be regularly updated with the latest news; but for now, I hope you enjoy seeing the adverts on the streets, and that they brighten these bleak January days just a little bit. As Charlie Brooker – one of the first people to donate to the Atheist Bus Campaign – says: "Public transport in Britain suggests there isn't a God anyway, but in case anyone hasn't noticed, or feels isolated for thinking such a thing, this campaign should help." I hope it does.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsCameron strategy threatens student numbers
David Cameron's economic plans threaten to cut student numbers and reduce opportunities, vice-chancellors have warned.
The Conservative leader has announced that he intends to restrict expenditure on all government departments except for health, schools, defence and international development to a 1% real increase in spending in 2009-10.
Prof Les Ebdon, vice-chancellor of the University of Bedfordshire and chair of Million+ group of former polytechnics, said: "This would mean sub-inflation growth in universities and a cut in student numbers, and would undoubtedly restrict the chance to go to university for many younger and older students from families who have never yet had the opportunity to benefit from higher education.
"It would also restrict opportunities for those made unemployed, and for businesses and the public sector which need to retrain staff."
Ebdon urged a "counter-cyclical investment in higher education" – investing rather than cutting spending during the downturn – to help universities meet the economic challenges of the credit crunch.
"It is deeply disappointing that the opposition is resiling on its previous commitment to widen participation, and clearly has not appreciated the contribution of universities to the economy and the lifelong learning agenda," he said.
"At this time we should be investing more in universities, not less, because we have got a marvellous opportunity to retrain people.
"There are several hundred thousand people who are available for higher education who weren't before, and will be looking to retrain now jobs are scarce.
"Of all the counter-cyclical investments, higher education really pays off. You save on job seekers' allowances and social security payments and train people for a new economy. It's not the time to be cutting back in universities."
Million+ universities are also urging government to do more to support the role universities can play in an economic downturn.
"Those made unemployed and put on short-time working must be able to access higher education without fear of incurring further individual debt or having their benefits cut," Ebdon warned. "We need more government initiatives to make this possible."
The universities secretary, John Denham, has called for universities to bring forward capital-spending projects and pay their suppliers on time to help keep the economy going.
But vice-chancellors have expressed fears that the recent freeze on additional student numbers will hamper their efforts to ride out the downturn.
The cuts to students numbers and grants came on top of the £100m funding cut for "second-chance students" — people returning to university to study for an equivalent or lower qualification (ELQ) than they already hold.
The government had promised the universities hardest hit – Birkbeck, University of London and the Open University – preference in bidding for additional student numbers before the student-number freeze was announced late last year.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsCameron strategy threatens student numbers
David Cameron's economic plans threaten to cut student numbers and reduce opportunities, vice-chancellors have warned.
The Conservative leader has announced that he intends to restrict expenditure on all government departments except for health, schools, defence and international development to a 1% real increase in spending in 2009-10.
Prof Les Ebdon, vice-chancellor of the University of Bedfordshire and chair of Million+ group of former polytechnics, said: "This would mean sub-inflation growth in universities and a cut in student numbers, and would undoubtedly restrict the chance to go to university for many younger and older students from families who have never yet had the opportunity to benefit from higher education.
"It would also restrict opportunities for those made unemployed, and for businesses and the public sector which need to retrain staff."
Ebdon urged a "counter-cyclical investment in higher education" – investing rather than cutting spending during the downturn – to help universities meet the economic challenges of the credit crunch.
"It is deeply disappointing that the opposition is resiling on its previous commitment to widen participation, and clearly has not appreciated the contribution of universities to the economy and the lifelong learning agenda," he said.
"At this time we should be investing more in universities, not less, because we have got a marvellous opportunity to retrain people.
"There are several hundred thousand people who are available for higher education who weren't before, and will be looking to retrain now jobs are scarce.
"Of all the counter-cyclical investments, higher education really pays off. You save on job seekers' allowances and social security payments and train people for a new economy. It's not the time to be cutting back in universities."
Million+ universities are also urging government to do more to support the role universities can play in an economic downturn.
"Those made unemployed and put on short-time working must be able to access higher education without fear of incurring further individual debt or having their benefits cut," Ebdon warned. "We need more government initiatives to make this possible."
The universities secretary, John Denham, has called for universities to bring forward capital-spending projects and pay their suppliers on time to help keep the economy going.
But vice-chancellors have expressed fears that the recent freeze on additional student numbers will hamper their efforts to ride out the downturn.
The cuts to students numbers and grants came on top of the £100m funding cut for "second-chance students" — people returning to university to study for an equivalent or lower qualification (ELQ) than they already hold.
The government had promised the universities hardest hit – Birkbeck, University of London and the Open University – preference in bidding for additional student numbers before the student-number freeze was announced late last year.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsIn pictures: Stunning pictures of nature's greatest spectacles in new BBC series
Julia Neuberger: Volunteering could be a way to restore peoples' sense of self-worth over the next year – but it needs to be done right
How Labour is learning the art of internet campaigning
Labour has produced a spoof version of an online meeting of the shadow cabinet and, if you're interested in political campaigning on the internet, it's worth taking a look. I glanced at it on the website yesterday but I've only just got round to having a proper look. It runs for about three minutes and, to appreciate it fully, it's best to watch to the end.
It's not unprecedented. Labour have produced widgets of this kind before - there's a list here - and so have the Tories. (Remember their response to the claim that Jack Straw had threatened to punch Ed Balls?) But Labour's "webcabinet" is classier than any of the other internet spoofs from the main political parties that I've seen. (If you remember anything more sophisticated, please tell me.) As one contributor explained at LabourHome, "It's not a cheap shot and patronising like ' Dave the Chameleon' but a straightforward ribbing of the shadow cabinet without being nasty. It's 'on message' too." Now it's up to the Tories to hit back.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsBaby P director, Sharon Shoesmith, files against Haringey council for unlawful dismissal
The top manager at the centre of the Baby P case, Sharon Shoesmith, is to appeal against her sacking on the grounds that she was unlawfully dismissed.
Shoesmith, 55, the former director of children's services at Haringey council, was removed by the children's secretary, Ed Balls, in December following a critical Ofsted inspection report into the circumstances surrounding the death of baby P.
Baby P died aged 17 months in a blood-spattered cot in August 2007. He was on the council's child protection register at the time, and had suffered more than 50 injuries at the hands of his abusive mother, her boyfriend and their lodger despite 60 contacts with the authorities over eight months.
A council statement published on 9 December said: "Ms Shoesmith will not be returning to work in Haringey. She will not receive any compensation package. She will not receive any payment in lieu of notice."
It said councillors felt that the content of the Ofsted joint area review had triggered a "fundamental loss of trust and confidence in Ms Shoesmith".
But it is understood lawyers acting for Shoesmith are to test whether the dismissal is lawful. If the appeal, which starts this week, is successful, Shoesmith could be in line for a payment in lieu of notice of three months pay – around £30,000 – and, should the case go to employment tribunal, a further payment of up to £63,000.
It is believed that Shoesmith's case hinges on whether Haringey council followed appropriate disciplinary processes, and whether it was within its rights to dismiss her without compensation. Normally, sacking without notice is only allowable in cases of gross misconduct, such as theft, fraud or serious bullying.
A spokesman for Haringey council confirmed Shoesmith was appealing against her dismissal.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsDave Hill: Some cold comfort this winter
I'd just stepped back on to the street, glowing from my exertions in the gym, so feel free to judge my case accordingly. There was, though, something essentially absurd about the disgruntlement of the man accosting me.
"Got to be below freezing," he said, buttonholing me right out of the blue. It turned out he was heading into the gym I'd just departed, which might explain his presumption of intimacy. Or maybe he was simply a loony. Anyway, he went on: "What do you think it is, uh?
"About two degrees," I offered.
"Minus two, uh?" he asked, suspiciously.
"Plus two, maybe."
"No, no, no!" His tone was both challenging and aggrieved. I had betrayed him in some way. "Must be below freezing."
"Cold enough anyway," I suggested, as a compromise.
"Freezing," he insisted.
"That's winter for you," I persevered, consolingly. "It gets cold."
He glared at me as though I were a dangerous dissident and walked away.
It was his sheer affrontedness that struck me; his seeming outrage at the very idea that in northern Europe in January it might be necessary to wear an extra jumper when you go outside. And it seems to me that his outlook is increasingly commonplace. Barely a day has gone by lately on which I haven't encountered someone going beyond conforming to the cliche about Britons' preoccupation with the weather and expressing a kind of wounded resentment about the recent frosts and intermittent snow.
It is one thing to grumble about the chill at this time of year but quite another to regard it as some high-handed, vindictive and quite unnecessary imposition on our way of life. What is the matter with such people? Have they not heard about the seasons? Are they so accustomed to the effects of global warming, even, perhaps, so hopeful that these will intensify, that they have come to regard sharply lowered temperatures at this time of year as a form of cruel injustice rather than just the normal state of meteorological affairs on this part of the Earth?
I don't mean to underestimate the unpleasantness that can coincide with contracting mercury: I'm no big fan of snow and ice and, as I write, I am accompanied at my deepest Hackney home by two of my children, both stricken with swollen throats and equatorial fevers. Was it purely coincidental that one of them picked Cool Runnings as his choice of convalescent viewing yesterday? Nor should it be forgotten that extreme cold hits the poor and elderly hardest.
Yet the hard heart of winter has its virtues. Sub-zero nights reduce the populations – and therefore inhibit the colonising tendencies – of monster vermin and, counter-intuitively, can foster human romance. The bleakness is but the precursor to the recovery of nature, and every minute brings nearer the glory of spring. Listen: this is still a cold country, at least some of the time. Let's live with the fact and learn to love it.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsHospitals told to lift ban on mobile phones
Hospitals in England should allow the use of mobile phones except in areas where they interfere with medical equipment or invade privacy, ministers said today.
NHS trusts should give patients, staff and visitors the "widest possible use" of their phones, the guidance from the Department of Health states.
It comes five years after experts said hospital-wide bans on mobiles were unnecessary.
In May 2007, the department recommended mobile phones were banned on wards and in operating theatres. The latest guidance is less prescriptive.
But it states that mobiles should continue to be banned where the electromagnetic fields could interfere with critical care equipment.
Hospitals must clearly indicate where mobile phones can and cannot be used, the guidance states.
Ben Bradshaw, the health minister, said mobiles could provide patients with close support and comfort from their loved ones.
He said: "Mobile phones are commonplace in everyday life these days and people have told us that they'd like to be able to use their phones more in hospital to keep in touch.
"That's why we're keen to encourage sensible use in NHS hospitals where it is safe to do so, in addition to other services offered in hospitals such bedside payphones, TV and internet access."
Clive Bray, director of device technology and safety at the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, said: "The MHRA recognises that mobile phones provide a practical way for patients to keep in touch with friends and relatives during their hospital stay. We welcome the clarification in guidance on the use of mobile phones in non critical areas."
Michael Summers, vice-chairman of the Patients' Association, that in the average ward there was "absolutely no reason" why a mobile phone could not be used provided it was done discreetly and without upsetting those nearby.
Nigel Edwards, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said: "Any change to current policy on mobile phone use should take account of patients need for privacy as well as the fact that contact with relatives and friends can in many cases make a stay in hospitals less stressful and worrying.
"However the last thing we want to do is to make hospitals more stressful than they need to be because of the noise of annoying ring tones or the kind of loud phone conversations that already plague much of everyday life. Doctors and nurses doing their rounds should not have to constantly wait for patients to finish phone calls and night-times on wards should not be disturbed by the chirruping of text messages.
"We need to ensure there is no free-for all and that policies supported by patients and staff are put in place such as quiet rooms and no mobile zones. There needs to be clarity on when mobile phones can be used and what visitors can do. "
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsHospitals told to lift ban on mobile phones
Hospitals in England should allow the use of mobile phones except in areas where they interfere with medical equipment or invade privacy, ministers said today.
NHS trusts should give patients, staff and visitors the "widest possible use" of their phones, the guidance from the Department of Health states.
It comes five years after experts said hospital-wide bans on mobiles were unnecessary.
In May 2007, the department recommended mobile phones were banned on wards and in operating theatres. The latest guidance is less prescriptive.
But it states that mobiles should continue to be banned where the electromagnetic fields could interfere with critical care equipment.
Hospitals must clearly indicate where mobile phones can and cannot be used, the guidance states.
Ben Bradshaw, the health minister, said mobiles could provide patients with close support and comfort from their loved ones.
He said: "Mobile phones are commonplace in everyday life these days and people have told us that they'd like to be able to use their phones more in hospital to keep in touch.
"That's why we're keen to encourage sensible use in NHS hospitals where it is safe to do so, in addition to other services offered in hospitals such bedside payphones, TV and internet access."
Clive Bray, director of device technology and safety at the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, said: "The MHRA recognises that mobile phones provide a practical way for patients to keep in touch with friends and relatives during their hospital stay. We welcome the clarification in guidance on the use of mobile phones in non critical areas."
Michael Summers, vice-chairman of the Patients' Association, that in the average ward there was "absolutely no reason" why a mobile phone could not be used provided it was done discreetly and without upsetting those nearby.
Nigel Edwards, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said: "Any change to current policy on mobile phone use should take account of patients need for privacy as well as the fact that contact with relatives and friends can in many cases make a stay in hospitals less stressful and worrying.
"However the last thing we want to do is to make hospitals more stressful than they need to be because of the noise of annoying ring tones or the kind of loud phone conversations that already plague much of everyday life. Doctors and nurses doing their rounds should not have to constantly wait for patients to finish phone calls and night-times on wards should not be disturbed by the chirruping of text messages.
"We need to ensure there is no free-for all and that policies supported by patients and staff are put in place such as quiet rooms and no mobile zones. There needs to be clarity on when mobile phones can be used and what visitors can do. "
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsDeborah Arnott: How the FSA got financial regulation wrong
Deborah Arnott: How the FSA got financial regulation wrong
UK house prices: a regional breakdown
House prices fell by 14.8% in England last year, with the last three months of the year seeing a 4.8% decline. Homeowners in East Anglia saw the biggest fall in the value of their homes, with prices dropping by 16.6% over the year to an average of £153,080.
London and its surrounding regions also took a hammering as affordability pressures and job losses took their toll. Prices in the capital fell by more than 15%, although Nationwide said the falls had not reached the pace of the early 1990s crash when it recorded an annual fall of 16.7%. London remains the most expensive place to buy a home in England with an average price of £257,963, compared to a country-wide average of £171,924.
Four out of five of the British cities that saw the largest price falls were in England, with Bristol, Bradford, Northampton and Norwich all recording a 17% drop.
Asked about the prospects for house prices over the next six months, consumers told Nationwide they expected to see falls across England, with the largest drop - 6.2% - expected in the West Midlands. Nationwide's chief economist, Fionnuala Earley, said: "Consumers' views about the direction of house prices generally seem to concur with other macroeconomic data, although the relative magnitude of changes recorded are a little mixed.
"Within England, London and the south-east might expect to be affected badly due to the combination of an employment shake-out in the financial sector and stretched affordability relative to other regions."
Northern IrelandAfter two years of massive growth, a correction in Northern Ireland was on the cards in 2008, and it came when prices dropped by a staggering 34.2% over the year, according to Nationwide.
At the start of the year the average house price in the region was £224,816; by the end of the year it was £147,833. Perhaps unsurprisingly Belfast is top of the list of biggest fallers, recording a 33% drop over the last 12 months. However, houses in the city are still much more expensive than the rest of Northern Ireland - and the UK as a whole - costing an average £203,942.
Across Northern Ireland the rate of price falls slowed as the year went on, with prices dropping by 7.4% in the last quarter of the year following three quarters of double-digit drops.
A survey of consumers in Northern Ireland found that while 9% of people expected prices to increase in the next six months, the average expectation was a 6.9% fall in values. Earley said: "Realistically one might expect Northern Ireland to remain the worst affected region in 2009, given the especially severe overshoot of house prices relative to earnings in the province during the boom years."
ScotlandOf all the UK regions Scotland saw the smallest fall in house prices last year with a decline of 8.1%, according to Nationwide. During the final quarter of the year prices actually rose, albeit it by just 0.1%, making it the only UK region to see a rise in prices last year. The average price of a home in Scotland is now £138,941, compared with £151,178 at the end of 2007.
Of the three main cities in Scotland, Aberdeen saw the largest annual fall of 11%, closely followed by Glasgow at 10%. In Edinburgh, where prices are highest, values fell by just 6%. For the second quarter running the largest year-on-year fall was in Renfrewshire and Inverclyde where prices were down by 15%.
Nationwide's consumer survey found Scotland was the most optimistic part of the UK with 11% of people believing prices will increase in the next six months. It was the only part of the UK where fewer than half of those questioned said they expected prices to fall.
WalesAcross Wales house prices fell by 12.1% in 2008, reducing the average price of a home to £136,174, according to Nationwide. In the last quarter of the year prices dropped by 2.4%, less than the 4.4% fall seen across the UK as a whole. Prices have fallen in every region of Wales, but some have been harder hit than others. In the south-east Nationwide said prices were down by 20% at the end of the year, while in the north and south-west falls were below 10%.
Despite a 10% decline in prices over the year, Cardiff remains the most expensive place to buy with an average price of £188,089. The cheapest area is south Wales (east) where the average house price has fallen to £141,654.
Consumers questioned by Nationwide said they expected prices to fall by an average of 6.3% over the next six months. The society said: "A continued fall in prices in Wales seems likely given economic conditions. Business surveys suggest a sharp reduction in the private sector workforce in Wales as output has fallen. However, the larger proportion of public sector employment in Wales is likely to protect it somewhat and help support the housing market relative to other regions."
Top city fallersBelfast: prices down 33% on Q4 of 2007 to £203,942
Bristol: Prices down 17% to £199,587
Bradford: prices down 17% to £144,881
Northampton: prices down 17% to £156,425
Norwich: prices down 17% to £169,898
Lowest city fallersDurham: prices down 4% on Q4 of 2007 to £147,188
Edinburgh: prices down 6% to £241,617
Leicester: prices down 7% to £154,787
Birmingham: prices down 9% to £164,939
Newcastle: prices down 9% to £162,863
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsCold snap deepens as temperatures reach -10C
The freezing new year weather looks set to continue causing problems for commuters today as temperatures dipped as low as -10C in Scotland, with chillier spells likely later in the week.
Thermometers in southern England were reading -7C by dawn , prompting the Met Office to issue a severe weather warning for London and eastern and south-eastern England.
Forecasters predicted temperatures in the south would fall to -8C or -9C tonight due to an unusually large high-pressure system. The temperatures are more than 10C below seasonal norms.
Yesterday, the AA said it was braced for more than 20,000 vehicle breakdowns on what for millions of workers was the first day back at work after the Christmas break.
Brendan Jones, a forecaster at MeteoGroup UK, the weather division of the Press Association, said: "The lowest temperature so far is -10C at Aboyne in north-east Scotland. Across large parts of England and Wales we will see -5 or -6C, while in the south they will go to -7C. But tomorrow in the south is going to be colder, with temperatures falling to -8C or -9C."
Driving conditions were made hazardous yesterday as cold easterly winds brought in rain, sleet and snow that turned to ice in many places.
The icy conditions contributed to a fatal accident in Lincolnshire in which a woman was killed after her car got stuck on a level crossing and was hit by a train. The 30-year-old was driving over the crossing in South Drove, near Spalding, when her car clipped a Ford Transit van heading in the opposite direction.
The Severn Trent water company warned its 8 million customers across the Midlands and Wales to protect their water systems after reports that pipes were freezing even with heating turned on.
Pensioners were advised to take extra precautions to stay warm.
Gordon Lishman, the director general of Age Concern, said: "With predictions of more snow and freezing temperatures this week we are urging vulnerable older people, who are more susceptible to the cold, to take extra precautions to stay warm and keep active. Many of the poorest pensioners are struggling to afford paying for essentials like food and heating. Yet despite this, up to £5bn in benefits is still going unclaimed."
He said anyone worried about high energy bills should call the charity's free helpline on 0800 00 99 66 for advice.
Police in Cumbria warned that children were risking their lives by playing on the ice covering one of England's largest lakes. Youngsters were seen on Saturday trying to smash holes with boulders as they played 50ft from the shore on Derwentwater, in the Lake District.
It emerged yesterday that a man in Greater Manchester plunged into a frozen lake to save his dog. The black cocker spaniel, called Jarvis, had become trapped after chasing ducks around the lake in Alkrington Woods, Middleton.
Walkers looked on as the man stripped off and waded into the icy waters to rescue Jarvis, who had got stuck in the middle of the lake. Both emerged from the water shivering before the owner shook the water off his clothes and walked away.
Forecasters say milder weather may return at the weekend.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsDebenhams: what the analysts say
Philip Dorgan, retail analyst at Panmure Gordon:
Dorgan raised his recommendation on the shares from Sell to Hold and nudged up his forecasts. "Better-than-expected numbers from Debenhams give management a strong hand if it decides that it needs a rights issue. As it is the debt problem that is weighing on the valuation, then this is extremely helpful for the share price, hence our upgrade from Sell to Hold and a tweaking up in our forecasts."
"Given that the first half delivers over 70% of annual profit, we have uptuned our numbers after this trading statement, although we remain well below consensus." Dorgan said that the management's focus on own bought merchandise and the reduction in stock levels is therefore delivering "decent results".
"However, the market's focus is on its debt which, at the year end, stood at £994m. Newspaper reports suggest that management favours a rights issue to bring this down and these numbers will help its case with shareholders."
Matthew McEachran, retail analyst at Singer:
"This is a modest improvement on the first 6 weeks, due in part we believe to the promotional tactics undertaken before Christmas but also due to market share gains, especially from their own designer brands which continue to outperform the concession brands (helping the margin mix too). In the absence of these discounts sales would have been lower, but gross margins would have been ahead. They have nonetheless reported gross margins flat year on year which is better than expected, and broadly compensates for the missed sales.
"This is the critical trading period for Debenhams. Given good stock control and tight cash management, the group remains on track to meet debt reduction targets. We forecast a £120m year on year reduction by August. With Debenhams still burdened by too much debt coming into the downturn, all strategic actions play towards cash generation. So far so good though, and these profit results are better than expected. We believe there could potentially be further risk to the dividend given the ongoing need to reduce debt. Overall the shares should respond well to the update."
Freddie George, retail analyst at Seymour Pierce:
"The company has reported a better than expected trading update. We suspect the company had a very strong post Christmas sale. Gross margins also encouragingly must have been stable despite the increase in promotional activity. There is no comment in the statement on the covenants although management states that debt levels are significantly lower than last year.
"Although these figures might prompt earnings upgrades, we are retaining our 2008/9 pre-tax profit of £75m because of our concerns about the outlook and the likelihood that the company will have to continue its aggressive discount policy to stimulate sales. We are also concerned about the dollar impact on gross margins, which will start to impact in the second half of 2009. The stock is not expensive on 4.5 times 2008/9 earnings but we remain concerned debt covenants in 2009. We retain our sell recommendation."
David Buik at BGC Partners:
"As expected the trading statements from Next and from Debenhams were not good. However, in all fairness, they were probably better than expected and what is encouraging about both companies is the fact that both managements seem to be good housekeepers – conscious of being cash generative and using every opportunity to repay debt whenever possible. Both retail groups have made sure that their respective stock controls have been accurate without too much in the way of visible surplus.
"Debenhams expects to beat last year's profit. Bob Templeman, Debenhams CEO has had a particularly torrid time since Debenhams' IPO in May 2005 when shares were issued at 200p," he added.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsDebenhams: what the analysts say
Philip Dorgan, retail analyst at Panmure Gordon:
Dorgan raised his recommendation on the shares from Sell to Hold and nudged up his forecasts. "Better-than-expected numbers from Debenhams give management a strong hand if it decides that it needs a rights issue. As it is the debt problem that is weighing on the valuation, then this is extremely helpful for the share price, hence our upgrade from Sell to Hold and a tweaking up in our forecasts."
"Given that the first half delivers over 70% of annual profit, we have uptuned our numbers after this trading statement, although we remain well below consensus." Dorgan said that the management's focus on own bought merchandise and the reduction in stock levels is therefore delivering "decent results".
"However, the market's focus is on its debt which, at the year end, stood at £994m. Newspaper reports suggest that management favours a rights issue to bring this down and these numbers will help its case with shareholders."
Matthew McEachran, retail analyst at Singer:
"This is a modest improvement on the first 6 weeks, due in part we believe to the promotional tactics undertaken before Christmas but also due to market share gains, especially from their own designer brands which continue to outperform the concession brands (helping the margin mix too). In the absence of these discounts sales would have been lower, but gross margins would have been ahead. They have nonetheless reported gross margins flat year on year which is better than expected, and broadly compensates for the missed sales.
"This is the critical trading period for Debenhams. Given good stock control and tight cash management, the group remains on track to meet debt reduction targets. We forecast a £120m year on year reduction by August. With Debenhams still burdened by too much debt coming into the downturn, all strategic actions play towards cash generation. So far so good though, and these profit results are better than expected. We believe there could potentially be further risk to the dividend given the ongoing need to reduce debt. Overall the shares should respond well to the update."
Freddie George, retail analyst at Seymour Pierce:
"The company has reported a better than expected trading update. We suspect the company had a very strong post Christmas sale. Gross margins also encouragingly must have been stable despite the increase in promotional activity. There is no comment in the statement on the covenants although management states that debt levels are significantly lower than last year.
"Although these figures might prompt earnings upgrades, we are retaining our 2008/9 pre-tax profit of £75m because of our concerns about the outlook and the likelihood that the company will have to continue its aggressive discount policy to stimulate sales. We are also concerned about the dollar impact on gross margins, which will start to impact in the second half of 2009. The stock is not expensive on 4.5 times 2008/9 earnings but we remain concerned debt covenants in 2009. We retain our sell recommendation."
David Buik at BGC Partners:
"As expected the trading statements from Next and from Debenhams were not good. However, in all fairness, they were probably better than expected and what is encouraging about both companies is the fact that both managements seem to be good housekeepers – conscious of being cash generative and using every opportunity to repay debt whenever possible. Both retail groups have made sure that their respective stock controls have been accurate without too much in the way of visible surplus.
"Debenhams expects to beat last year's profit. Bob Templeman, Debenhams CEO has had a particularly torrid time since Debenhams' IPO in May 2005 when shares were issued at 200p," he added.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds